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By M G Kuhn

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Against this conceptual background, it appears that the dynamics of micro cogeneration development does not have a single source or direction. It can better be understood as an evolutionary process from which a new socio-technical configuration emerges. This process is 2 Dynamics of Socio-Technical Change 25 embedded in the structures of the existing energy regime. Taking into account that this ‘selection environment’ itself is undergoing evolutionary change, one can speak of co-evolution to grasp the interaction of heterogeneous processes of innovation (Norgaard 1994; Rip 2002).

Since these are the frameworks to which they refer in making decisions and undertaking actions, they may actually become transformed into agendas and programs which are indeed quite powerful in structuring “real” technological, political, economic, or cultural futures (Dierkes et al. 1992; van Lente 1993; van Lente and Rip 1998; Canzler and Dierkes 2001; Konrad 2004). Self-fulfilling or -defeating prophecies, as it were. The prophecies which we have a look at in this chapter are based on different methods and refer to diverse application areas.

Against this background, Matthes and Cames (2000) as well as Fischedick et al. (2002) and Nitsch et al. (2004) consider CHP a building block for the expansion of renewable energy carriers. On the other hand, electricity produced by fossil-fuel-based CHP competes with electricity from windmills, hydroenergy, and photovoltaics. The studies differ in their assessment. Fischedick et al. (2002) suggest that CHP power, after a growth phase, will have to decrease again to make room for renewable energy use.

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