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Additional resources for Induction, Probability and Confirmation (Minnesota Studies in Philosophy of Science)
Sample text
Salmon it is still possible that which makes it possible, in turn, that Since, according to (20) and (21), the possibility of i confirming each of two hypotheses while disconfirming their conjunction depends upon the ability of h to make a difference in the relevance of i to k. We said above, however, that the occurrence of the strange confirmation phenomena depends upon the possibility of a change in the relevance of the hypotheses to one another in the light of new evidence. These characterizations are, however, equivalent to one another, for the change in relevance of i to k brought about by h is equal to the change in relevance of h to k brought about by i, that is, We can therefore still maintain that the apparently anomalous confirma38 To establish the compatibility of (20) and (21), perhaps a simple example, in addition to the one about to be given in the text, will be helpful.
The family of c-functions for such a language 46 CARNAP S EMPIRICISM would be parametrized by a number of adjustable constants, whose values would be determined by the interpretations chosen for the primitive predicates. Examples of such parameters: the logical widths of the primitive predicates; the logical distances between them. " Consider the case in which a small child thinks there may be an elephant in the next room. , behind the easy chair. Quine points out that there is no telling whether the child's ignorance of the sizes of elephants reveals lack of factual knowledge or lack of semantical understanding: it is only by an arbitrary stipulation that we can see it as a matter of definition (or, alternatively, as a matter of fact) that elephants are rather large, compared with easy chairs.
You are indeed right that the customary c-method has the disadvantage that it refers only to certain situations which can never be completely realized, namely cases where the observer knows the result of an observation with certainty. But the method gives at least a clear rule for these idealized situations: (3) When you experience an observation ot which is formulated by the sentence eb then add e{ to the prior evidence and take as rational degree of belief in any sentence h its c-value with respect to the total evidence.