By Eugene F. Fama
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S. consumers have arguably been the single greatest economic force in world history for two centuries, and many economists assure the world that these consumers remain integral to international monetary flows—particularly when it comes to building personal wealth. Investors blindly assume economists are right—but what if they’re not? Current indications are that America’s prolific spending habits are reversing. S. savings rate actually rose in 2008—the first net gain in more than a decade. It was actually negative from the first quarter of 2005 to late 2006—the first full-year savings deficit since 1932–1933.
Personally, I really don’t care “whodunit”—preferring to look forward at how to recover and profit from the situation rather than back at who might have caused it. Still, in the interests of clarity— and possibly helping to recognize future potential meltdowns a little more quickly—it’s probably not a bad idea to review what I believe are some of the key factors that led to America’s economic undoing. FROM GOOD MONEY TO BAD—THE EROSION OF MONETARY STANDARDS For starters, let me say that there’s almost certainly enough blame to spread among all of them.
It was actually negative from the first quarter of 2005 to late 2006—the first full-year savings deficit since 1932–1933. S. 9 percent. 9 percent. That’s bad news for the economy of what has come to be known as the world’s foremost “consumer nation”—the nation whose citizens, on average, spent $49,638 in 2007 (latest figure). Growth of the American Consumer 41 Of course, even with the recent contraction, America can hardly be described as a pauper state. 1 trillion pace for the first quarter of 2009, keeping the United States firmly in place as both the world’s largest economy and the world’s biggest spender.